Markets Hit New Records on Iran Ceasefire Hopes; S&P 500 Posts Ninth Consecutive Weekly Gain
U.S. stock markets surged to record highs as investors bet on an extended ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease oil prices that have fueled inflation. The S&P 500 achieved its ninth consecutive weekly gain while oil fell to $87 per barrel.
Equity Rally on Geopolitical Optimism
Markets hit new record highs last week on reports of an extended ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that would finally reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This news propelled a ninth consecutive weekly gain in the S&P 500 index and a rebound in bond markets as oil prices fell to $87 per barrel.
The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high of 7,580, underscoring the market's willingness to look through both geopolitical volatility and lingering macro uncertainties. Market sentiment shifted as optimism around U.S.–Iran relations boosted equities and lowered oil prices, while inflation concerns stabilize.
Energy Market Relief
Oil prices retreated last month over reports that the U.S. and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement for an extended ceasefire. Yet, Brent crude futures still trade above $90 per barrel, up more than 50% since the year started.
Economic Fundamentals Provide Support
The working thesis remains intact: economic growth is holding, corporate earnings are resilient, and technology-led secular drivers (particularly within AI) continue to justify elevated multiples. The news that Anthropic has been valued at near $1tn in a pre-initial public offering underlines the continued investor optimism around these technologies.
Caveat on Durability
It is worth sounding a note of caution here. Markets have seen false dawns around a potential reopening of the Strait in recent weeks, and a durable recovery in traffic will be needed to be fully confident that this shock is easing. Markets remain acutely sensitive to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, which will serve as the most immediate barometer for whether last week's optimism proves durable or fleeting.