Ken Paxton Defeats John Cornyn in Texas GOP Senate Runoff, Marking Historic Upset

The Result

Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate Tuesday, ending over three decades of Sen. John Cornyn's electoral dominance. The Associated Press called the race for Paxton shortly after 8 p.m., about an hour after most polls closed in Texas. With 76% of the votes counted at 10pm, Paxton was up 28 percentage points over Cornyn.

Trump's Influence

The attorney general received Trump's backing a week before election day, providing him with a significant boost after both candidates spent a year lobbying for it. Paxton's victory further demonstrates Trump's iron grip on his party and the consequences Republicans can face for even mild criticism of a president who demands loyalty. It sends a chilling message to the Republican establishment, which has now lost one of its most powerful senators and best fundraisers.

Historic Defeat for Cornyn

In a cycle that has already seen notable incumbents in both parties go down nationally, Cornyn's loss is a political earthquake. Cornyn has been an elected official for over 40 years, rising from district judge to Texas Supreme Court justice to Texas attorney general to the U.S. Senate. First elected to the Senate in 2002, Cornyn ascended the GOP ranks, serving as Senate Republican whip — the number two position in the conference — from 2013 to 2019.

General Election Ahead

The outcome sets up a general election matchup between Paxton and Austin state Rep. James Talarico. Democrats have made no secret of their preference for Paxton, who they believe can be beaten due to the baggage he carries from a line of political and personal scandals. Paxton has run and won three times statewide, but Talarico will be by far his best-funded and most prominent opponent. A Democrat hasn't won a statewide office in Texas in more than three decades.