ISM Reports U.S. Economic Expansion Expected Through 2026, Manufacturing Revenue to Rise 8.4%
Purchasing and supply executives across the U.S. forecast the economy will continue expanding for the rest of 2026, with manufacturing revenue expected to grow 8.4% and services revenue climbing 8.6% despite ongoing inflation and geopolitical challenges.
Economic Optimism Amid Uncertainty
The U.S. economy is expected to continue to expand over the rest of 2026, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2026 ISM Supply Chain Planning Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2026 are higher than those expressed in December 2025, signaling growing confidence among key economic players despite persistent headwinds.
Manufacturing and Services Growth
Manufacturing revenue for 2026 is expected to increase, on average, by 8.4 percent, while services revenues are expected to increase 8.6 percent in 2026. This broad-based growth reflects strength across both sectors as companies plan expansion and capital investment. Additionally, services employment is expected to increase 0.9 percentage point in 2026.
Persistent Price Pressures
Despite the optimistic growth outlook, inflation remains a significant concern. Prices paid increased 7.7 percent through June 2026, and prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 8.9 percent for all of 2026, indicating expectations of continuing inflation. The U.S. economy continues to successfully battle the headwinds posed by trade issues, continued inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Looking Ahead
The survey, conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), draws from responses of purchasing and supply executives nationwide. These forecasts carry significant weight with economists and policymakers, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI is widely considered one of the most reliable indicators of near-term economic activity.