Global Economic Data Mixed; Trump Announces Strait of Hormuz Shipping Fees as Oil Prices Climb
U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to levy 20% fees on cargo shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising oil prices and triggering concerns about supply disruptions. Oil prices climbed on geopolitical tensions, while global economic activity shows resilience amid energy cost headwinds.
Trump's Hormuz Strait Toll Policy Rattles Oil Markets
Oil prices rose on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose shipping fees in the Strait of Hormuz and reinstate a blockade of Iranian ports, raising concerns over potential disruptions to global crude supplies. Trump said Monday that the U.S. will levy fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, charging "at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped," after describing the United States as the "guardian" of the vital oil transit route.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August delivery rose 1.14% to $79.1, while International benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery climbed 0.79% to $83.97, extending gains after advancing 9.6% in the previous session.
Regional Economic Resilience Despite Energy Headwinds
The S&P 500 closed at 7,537.43, up 0.72%, as investors balanced a soft US jobs report against resilient services data, keeping global risk appetite intact and supportive for Latin American capital flows. Brazil's service sector remains robust, with the prior month posting 1.9% growth, reinforcing the view that domestic demand is holding up even as headline inflation cools.
Inflation Dynamics and Central Bank Responses
That shift has lifted near-term inflation expectations and nudged advanced-economy yields higher, a reminder that the 2026 disinflation story is not linear, and for Brazil, higher oil feeds fuel costs and broader price expectations, complicating Copom's delicate attempt to support activity without losing credibility on inflation. Bond markets are less relaxed: US 10-year Treasury yields have pushed higher by roughly 10 basis points as oil and geopolitics reprice inflation risk, and higher long yields tighten global financial conditions at the margin, tempering the appeal of EM duration trades just as LatAm central banks edge away from peak rates.
Emerging Market Currency and Carry Trade Dynamics
Brent crude traded near US$79 a barrel after a weekly gain driven by attacks and US strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, a double-edged sword for Brazil that supports exporters but complicates Copom's easing path, while with USD/BRL near 5.13 per dollar, Brazil's real yields remain among the most attractive in emerging markets, drawing inflows and cushioning regional risk sentiment.