Oil Prices Remain Volatile Amid Iran War as Markets Price in Prolonged Disruption
Oil prices climbed nearly 50% since the Iran war began, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and negotiations stalled. Global crude supplies remain constrained while countries burn through strategic reserves to prevent even sharper price spikes.
Energy Markets in Turmoil
WTI crude oil futures climbed more than 4.5% to near $106 per barrel on Friday and booked a weekly gain of 11% as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, keeping global supply concerns elevated. Efforts to end the conflict remain stalled, with disruptions continuing to impact energy markets and fuel inflation fears.
Strategic Reserves Deployment
The oil supplies in transit have mostly reached their destinations, and yet, the price of oil, while elevated, has not nearly risen to the level required to suppress demand adequately. The answer lies in the fact that countries have been dipping into their crude-oil reserves to an extraordinary degree since the conflict began.
Global Supply Pressures
S&P Global Energy reports that, in April, global stockpiles of crude fell by 200 million barrels—or roughly 6.6 million barrels per day. An analyst at JP Morgan estimates that, as of April 23, 2026, 280 million barrels of reserves had been tapped since the crisis began. The same analyst estimates that, although there are about 8 billion barrels of crude in reserve, only about 580 million barrels are easily accessible. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency estimates that, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, and with some offsetting increases in production and diversion of Gulf oil, the world's supply of oil had declined by 11.1 million barrels per day in March.