Kevin Warsh Sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, Market Faces Uncertainty Over Rate Hike Stance

Kevin Warsh took over as Federal Reserve chair on Friday, replacing Jerome Powell. Market traders now see a potential rate hike as early as December, with inflation accelerating to 3.8% in April amid energy costs from the Iran conflict.
New Fed Leadership Amid Inflation Concerns
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on Friday. Warsh has indicated he thinks the central bank can lower rates in the current environment, marking a potential shift from recent policy.
Market Pricing in Rate Hikes
Despite Warsh's dovish comments, traders in the fed funds futures market are pricing in an interest rate increase as soon as December, with a much higher certainty into the early part of 2027. A December hike has a nearly 51% probability, while a move higher by January carries about a 60% probability with March coming in at better than 71%.
Inflation Surge Complicates Policy
The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 3.8% in April 2026, the highest since May 2023, with figures coming above forecasts of 3.7% as the oil shock triggered by the war with Iran continues to push prices higher. Energy costs jumped 17.9%, the steepest annual increase since September 2022.