Inflation Alert: April CPI Expected to Spike Near Three-Year High Amid Energy Crisis
Economists predict April's Consumer Price Index will reach nearly 3.7% annually as energy prices surge following Middle East tensions. The inflation spike is being driven by geopolitical disruptions affecting oil supplies and raising broader price pressures across the economy.
CPI Report Forecast
April's consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, is forecast to reach an annual rate of 3.7%. The Consumer Price Index for April 2026 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m.
Energy Prices and Geopolitical Impact
Last Friday, a surprisingly good April jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed strong job creation and low unemployment. But on Tuesday, the April Consumer Price Index (or CPI report) is expected to show inflation rising significantly, led by gas and energy. The near-closure of Hormuz since the start of the war at the end of February has choked off supplies of crude, natural gas and fuels to global customers, driving up energy prices and raising inflation fears.
Market Concerns and Wage Pressures
The trend from "the last two months will look a lot more like 2022 than the disinflation story markets have been telling themselves." Indeed, concerns have been rising that financial markets are choosing to look through the current spike as a temporary event caused by the Iran war.
Wage-Price Dynamics
If headline inflation comes in as high as expected for April, consumers are expecting those gas price increases to pass through to consumer-facing prices overall. What that means is people's actual wages, after you adjust for inflation, will likely either be flat or in decline.